Research Report 79: The heroin epidemic of the 1980s and 1990s and its effect on crime trends - then and now

2 The heroin epidemic of the 1980s and 1990s and its effect on crime trends-then and now Contents Summary 3 Chapter 1: Introduction and methodology 6 Chapter 2: An overview of crime trends and explanations of the crime drop 10 Chapter 3: A historical overview of the spread of heroin in England and Wales 24 Chapter 4: The relationship between opiate/crack use and crime 31 Chapter 5: The relationship between opiate/crack use and crime locally, 36 nationally and internationally Chapter 6: Quantifying the impact of changing levels of opiate/crack use on 49 acquisitive crime trends Conclusion 57 References 60 The heroin epidemic of the 1980s and 1990s and its effect on crime trends-then and now Summary  A variety of factors have been cited to explain the rise and fall in crime that has occurred in many nations since 1980. But as yet, no definitive explanation has been produced. In the UK context, a rise and fall in illicit drug use has not been especially prominent in this debate, perhaps due to a lack of robust data for the whole period.  This paper gathers available evidence and conducts new analysis to try to assess the effect that heroin and crack-cocaine 1 use may have had on acquisitive crime (i.e. theft-type offences) in England and Wales since 1980. It also suggests implications for future crime trends.  Numerous sources of evidence agree that the number of heroin users increased markedly through the 1980s and early 1990s and that many also used crack as their drug-using career developed. This 'epidemic' spread from area to area but the national peak probably occurred between 1993 and 2000. Crime peaked between 1993 and 1995.  Current data, particularly from treatment providers, show that heroin/crack use has declined for at least a decade and that – as with offending – the decline has been most marked amongst younger people. This means those who began using these drugs during the epidemic still dominate the heroin/crack-using population today.  Studies agree that, in aggregate, heroin/crack users commit a large number of offences; large enough, this paper shows, to be an important driver of overall crime trends.  Studies disagree about whether it is illicit drug use that causes the criminality. This is because a sizable proportion of heroin/crack users do not resort to theft. And many were offending before taking these drugs. However, evidence suggests that, for …